I wanted to say thanks for writing this. With my own comment, I didn’t mean to spread FUD.
It had become apparent to me while reading through the git issue that Susan linked and the threads and additional RFCs linked there that the issue is more nuanced. I hope you’ll forgive me - the documentation on this topic isn’t the easiest to digest for someone who is a desktop user, who only has very limited experience distributing hobby projects, etc.
I am not sure having read your reply if or not the current situation should be viewed as more or less secure than your typical signed distribution in (a) the case where you use core repositories or (b) the case where you use core repositories and supplemental user ones such as the AUR. The latter depends a lot on personal habits, I suspect. I also suspect I lack the expertise to really pass a judgement useful to anyone else, though I will try to improve my understanding to inform my own choices about software.
It seems to me that the weak points in the security model and supply chain are different, but that quantifying relative risk is not straightforward. I definitely see the strength of the points you mention. I’ll have a personal think about threat models and do some more reading.
I would hazard a guess that how risky some potentiality looks to you at some specific point in the supply chain is going to depend a lot on an individual’s personal situation, security needs, and personal habits. That can differ by situation, context, and machine for the same person as well.
As for things like the AUR, I personally don’t think one should really use it unless they are regularly reviewing PKGBUILDs themvelves, looking at upstream code, commit history, whether signatures match other distribution channels, etc. But I understand that everybody has different thresholds for security, convenience, knowledge/ability, time, and so on, and that the majority likely don’t do this. I’m also aware that I have limited ability to review various aspects of the supply chain, that some of my efforts are likely security feature given personal ignorance, and that even for myself I have different security requirements and threat models for different machines in different contexts. (My casual/daily desktop machine for example I will install various unscrutable proprietary blobs, on another I certainly would not do that.)