TL:DR:
Philosopher and TED Fellow Carissa Véliz traces the hidden power of prediction, from Roman emperors who banned prophets to the AI algorithms quietly making decisions about your life right now.
We tend to associate predictions with knowledge, she says, but they’re actually attempts to grab power. So the next time someone tells you a specific outcome is inevitable, remember: they aren’t describing the future — they’re selling it.
KEY POINTS:
- Predictions are not facts.
Facts belong in the past.
- Predictions invite manipulation.
They are power plays in disguise.
They justify value-laden decisions under the pretense of facts.
Predictions about human beings are fundamentally different, then those about things. Predictions about the weather don’t influence the weather, but predictions about people influence people. Social predictions tend to act like magnets. They bend reality toward themselves, they affect the reality the purport to predict.
- Predictions create and cover up injustice.
Algorithmic predictions create this Kafkaesque world in which we can no longer contest decisions because they’re not based on clearly defined criteria.
If I reject your loan application because you don’t fulfill a particular requirement, that’s a verifiable fact. I’m wrong, you can challenge me. But if I reject your loan application on the basis of a prediction, there’s no way you can contest that.
FINAL WORDS:
Predictions can be weapons of power, but they only work if we believe them. […]
Efforts to predict the future go hand in hand with efforts to control it. So beware of prophets and prophecies.It’s only when we acknowledge that we don’t know what the future holds and act accordingly, that we can be sure to live in a free society. Don’t bow to people’s predictions as if they were facts. […] Rebel against tyrannical predictions.